|
How
much will US retail markets
grow in coming years?
---
About
7%/year?
Why
not ask the experts?
We checked with KEMA's Taff
Tschamler who studies that question almost every day and is considered
the nation's leading consultant in the area.
He sent us a summary of an
almost 100-page document with data broken down state by state.
From now through 2010 the average
growth in switching, he expects market growth will be 7%.
That's the base case. If the
growth is on the high side he put that at 13% or as low as 3% on
the low side.
That's the forecast for residential
and C&I mixed together.
What happens to pricing may
play a major role as markets unfold, he predicted, thinking about
what would happen if prices do fall.
Tschamler cited New England
where prices this winter "will be very high" such as 13¢
for the generation charge where recently they've been paying about
7¢.
"By the time spring rolls
around ... customers will be tired of paying 13¢," he
observed.
Tschamler noted power prices
have begun to fall in recent weeks. At least in the short term he
sees a real possibility that the high case may become the base case
there.
One factor depressing the 2005
forecast, he noted, was the large return of Ohio shoppers to utility
service.
Obviously the leading market
is in Texas, way out in front as number one followed by New England,
New York, PJM (except certain states).
Western and midwestern markets
"are less attractive."
For residentials the growth
is expected largely in New York and Texas. Last year's 2.2% growth
is to hit 4.1% by 2010.
That means that the 28 thousand
terawatt hours would about double to 60 twh by 2010.
In the high case it's possible
that some states could open up for heavy residential shopping in
places such as Massachusetts and California, he told us after the
vote on Prop 80.
The spread in the high case
would boost shopping by 25.9% compared with a base case of 13.8%
and a meager 3.8% in the low case.
Then if you break out the C&I
market outlook, KEMA reports that 13.3% of US volumes shopped last
year but that's to grow to 16.7% in 2010.
That's 302 twh bought in open
markets compared with 433 twh in five years.
He expects little change from
the high case at 3.2% gain to the low case at 2.3% growth -- the
increase in those eligible to shop.
Tschamler put the high case
actual growth potential at 10.7%, base case at 6.2% and low case
at 3%.
Originally
published in Restructuring
Today on November 14, 2005
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