What does Taff Tschamler see ahead for competitive market?

Encouraged about NY

We gave him a call and he shared with us his carefully thought out picture of the next five years in the competitive power industry.
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        Tschamler predicted a residential growth rate of 40 terawatthours from 2005 through 2011 or about 13% growth a year under his base case while non-residential markets are to grow by about 5% per year.
        He forecast a non-residential slow down driven by dips in Michigan and Ohio between 2005 and 2011.
        He sees a boost in residential competition driven primarily by gains in Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut and California in the out years.
        What caught our eye was his view of the size of the market and the size he predicts it will become.
        We were fascinated by his view on New York
        He predicted a residential rise in Texas and New York of less than 2 twh.
        Does KEMA think Eliot Spitzer will trash carefully developed New York retail competition?
        It's difficult to predict, said Tschamler.
        In his campaign for governor, Spitzer was quiet about markets.
        Three commissioners were recently appointed, Tschamler reminded and will be there through Spitzer's first term.
        It's hard to imagine "a complete unwinding of what's happened in New York, Tschamler said.
        In his report, Tschamler forecast "significant expansion in the competitive market.
        He reported on "a lot of settled policy at the commission."
        The policy would suggest to Tschamler that the current path is the most likely one.





        Originally published in Restructuring Today on November 16, 2006